Survivorship Bias in Expat YouTube
The retire-abroad channels you watch are made, by construction, by the people for whom it worked. The ones it broke don't post a final video. The denominator is missing.
Tag
survivorship-bias
5 pieces
The Return-Rate Triangulation — A Cohort-Decay Model
No agency counts how many retirees stay, so model it: 100 arrivals decay to 54 in place at 75, 18 at 85. The stay-curve, with its bands stated.
How Many Actually Go Home — and Why
No agency counts how many Western retirees leave Thailand or the Philippines. The silent cohort, triangulated from three directions, uncertainty stated.
Paradise Is a Place You Visit, Not a Place You Age
The brochure footage is real, and honeymoon-phase, survivor-sampled data sold as a marriage. Paradise is a relation, and the move ends it on schedule.
The Geographic Cure Is a Lie
Moving abroad won't make you happy. The geographic cure is a term from addiction recovery. What travels with you, what doesn't, when the bill lands.